Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 14.087356 16.408950 18.933605 21.875311 25.200729 28.835164 33.099451
2024-12-29 10.813740 14.072337 17.950697 22.870278 28.904088 36.020508 45.002184
2025-01-05 8.440862 12.103882 16.816209 23.235414 31.651905 42.201510 56.298213
2025-01-12 6.704062 10.489593 15.706910 23.266879 33.756238 47.586666 66.949751
2025-01-19 5.459983 9.250860 14.809978 23.316750 35.713194 52.778821 77.626399
2025-01-26 4.927997 8.929673 15.109532 24.998678 39.991648 61.353148 93.429724
2025-02-02 4.365197 8.437165 15.042517 26.064552 43.397670 68.880158 108.226712
2025-02-09 3.886585 7.985916 14.949510 27.028234 46.668543 76.373171 123.398857
2025-02-16 3.322419 7.272563 14.307092 26.995630 48.327120 81.505720 135.331939
2025-02-23 2.758938 6.448259 13.343961 26.283823 48.774640 84.738632 144.500460
2025-03-02 2.258693 5.645535 12.293601 25.271222 48.581272 86.877288 152.011183
2025-03-09 1.978107 5.243115 11.929386 25.429296 50.360104 92.257011 164.905670
2025-03-16 1.671098 4.730741 11.297955 25.056633 51.241781 96.331049 176.144947
2025-03-23 1.545321 4.616017 11.461810 26.233312 55.022656 105.551259 196.442403
2025-03-30 1.373196 4.350147 11.265451 26.666092 57.449669 112.576871 213.425459
2025-04-06 1.196392 4.030963 10.902401 26.709640 59.127761 118.372871 228.602191
2025-04-13 1.045575 3.745089 10.568960 26.768777 60.822840 124.276123 244.245084
2025-04-20 1.018570 3.807164 11.062809 28.662239 66.283474 137.305882 273.039612
2025-04-27 0.953852 3.742215 11.237451 29.860813 70.418874 148.100094 298.331108
2025-05-04 0.888604 3.660493 11.357633 30.943559 74.385537 158.774408 323.873536
2025-05-11 0.780550 3.412111 11.011620 30.907005 76.003085 165.076593 341.719222
2025-05-18 0.657384 3.075827 10.376429 30.107442 75.920592 168.087661 353.603788
2025-05-25 0.541310 2.726113 9.641250 28.969361 74.991755 169.363660 362.260451